The series finale; a dynasty startup blueprint.
This article looks at the likelihood of a wide receiver taken as a top 36 receiver in a startup draft, or a WR taken in the first two rounds of a rookie draft, helping you win a fantasy championship within the next three years. This article uses myfantasyleague.com WR ADP data and the fantasyfootballcalculator.com Dynasty rookie draft ADP from 2013 to 2019. Startup draft data is broken into WR 1-12, WR 13-24, and WR 25-36, and what are the chances that any of these receivers finish as a top 24 receiver or are considered a bust by falling out of the top 36 receivers within the next three years. The dynasty rookie draft data is broken down by first and second-round receiver ADP and their likelihood of finishing as a top 24 receiver or outside the top 36 and thus being considered a bust in any of their first three years using half PPR scoring.
As every commercial and email I received during the past four months have been more than happy to remind me, “We are in uncertain times…” Unfortunately, this sentiment has grown to include the start of the NFL season. Preseason may end up canceled to go along with, at best, a shortened training camp. Right now, the NFL is reluctant to adopt the “bubble” strategy other sports are employing. These choices may mean the season is at even more risk than other leagues.
That rookie running back that was just drafted with the 5th overall pick in the dynasty rookie draft is going to set your team over the edge this year! This is what many fantasy players tell themselves every year. It may be true, however does the data back it up?
Tyler Dell is leading the Gibson Express to Championship-ville. Read why he believes Antonio Gibson provides Washington with more than just a receiving back.
What is the point of all this? Why is this important? It’s important because when you are drafting Wide receivers as rookies or buying/selling them based on what happened their rookie year, you have to get it right. At no point throughout that Receivers career are 10 touches a game just going to fall into their lap. Is David Montgomery good? Does anyone actually know? Does it matter? Don’t be silly OF COURSE it doesn’t matter. The Bears have chosen to endow him with 250 carries next year. He was drafted top 3 in most dynasty rookie drafts last year. He was awful, I mean hot garbage. I bet most owners of David Montgomery if they held on could probably still get a 1st round rookie value of some kind back for him in return. Even if he goes out an average 3 yards a carry next year. He will still likely see a role in 2021.
Thank you for joining me for part 5 of my Dynasty startup review. At this point we’re going to increase the number of rounds we cover again and reach the halfway point of the draft by covering rounds 11 through 15.
By this stage in proceedings, our teams are coming together. Each manager should have an idea of where their strengths lie and what positions they need to take some fliers on in the middle rounds. So without further ado here is the results of this portion of the draft:
Part 3 in the RoD Writers League startup series!
Welcome back, and thanks for joining me in my recap of rounds three and four of our writers' room dynasty startup. We finished round two with eight quarterbacks, ten running backs, four wide receivers and one tight end off the board; no kickers or mascots have been drafted yet (these guys might know what they're doing!).