By Josh Frey
Week 10 Hits (Full Point PPR):
RB, Kalen Ballage – 15.2
WR, Brandon Aiyuk – 19.7
WR, Josh Reynolds – 17.4
QB, Kyler Murray – 29.1
D/ST, Steelers – 11
Week 10 Whiffs (Full Point PPR):
TE, TJ Hockenson – 3.3
RB, James Conner – 6.8
WR, Curtis Samuel – 4.2
TE, Noah Fant – 4.8
D/ST, Texans – 3
Another DFS slate drafted in the wee hours of the morning from the night shift guy! Far from perfect last week, but I can live with 5 Hits to go along with 5 Whiffs. For what it’s worth I consider price into the Hit/Whiff; for example Kyler Murray having 29.1 (thanks to the Hail Murray) isn’t the same as say, Kalen Ballage… Let me explain- Murray was the a top QB and fully expected to maintain his 29 point average, he also had a high start percentage meaning a lot of DFS players, especially in tournaments, went with him at QB. Ballage was considered a risky play as he was a potential one-week wonder and we all remember him with the ‘phins in 2019… Aiyuk and Reynolds were calls that paid off as well.
The Iowa TEs made me look bad last week… Like really, really bad. TE is a punt this year more than usual with Kittle/Ertz/Goedert being hurt, but we’ll get back on track this week. Samuel was getting the usage right away, but they pulled away from it, also a bad call. Conner needs to score eventually, right? Or maybe Mapletron is Conner’s Kryptonite… Sanders and Robinson were solid, but likely didn’t win you any money.
Moving on to this week, there are a few interesting games, but ATL-NO has to take the cake with super-athlete Taysom Hill supposedly starting at QB! In DraftKings he is a solid play as he doesn’t cost much and his rushing should give him a good floor. The worry there is that Sean Payton is bluffing and while Hill will get the first snap, he won’t play the majority of the game at QB. In FanDuel (and possibly other daily leagues) he is listed as a TE and a very cheap one at that! Smash start in FanDuel as he should put up at least double digit fantasy points. I didn’t include him in the rankings as he is listed differently in DraftKings and FanDuel.
Without further ado, here are my week 11 plays for the main slate (morning and afternoon games). Enjoy!
DFS Plays – Week 11 Main Slate:
Cam Newton @ Texans
FanDuel = $7,700 / DraftKings = $6,200
Cam’s passing game has been practice squad-level this season, but he gets to play against a Houston defense that has been struggling all year. We know about his rushing upside- he’s already ran for an absurd 9 touchdowns this season! If you’re entering a DFS tournament this weekend, Cam could be a big factor.
Alex Smith vs. Bengals
FanDuel = $6,600 / DraftKings = $5,300
Smith gets the Bengals this weekend, who have also been struggling on defense. He’s looked solid in his 2 starts; despite only accounting for one touchdown, he’s thrown for 715 yards… The touchdowns will come. Cheap stack with Scary Terry and you may be on to something.
Miles Sanders @ Browns
FanDuel = $7,700 / DraftKings = $6,900
Sanders returned last week and put up a respectable 15 carries along with 2 receptions (5 targets). Sanders is a talented back, should be 100%, in a workhorse role, and plays against a Browns defense that will be playing without Myles Garrett.. If you have a second, check out their stats with and without Garrett in the lineup- it’s night and day. This is also the one game this week that is likely to be affected by weather, which could up the overall rushing attempts significantly.
Mike Davis vs. Lions
FanDuel = $7,400 / DraftKings = $6,800
Mike Davis gets another week of workhorse role with McCaffrey being ruled out. The Lions have struggled against opposing running backs, and with Teddy Bridewater banged up they should call his number early and often. Very high ceiling for Davis this week with a pretty solid floor as well.
Jonathan Taylor vs. Packers
FanDuel = $5,700 / DraftKings = $5,800
Swinging for the fences with this one. The Packers run defense has been awful, but I think it’s important to note that where they struggle is with tackling. Hines is a serious threat, but he’s not as difficult to bring down. Taylor with his size/speed combination will put the Pack in a bind. This could be the blowup week we’ve all been looking for with JT.
Kalen Ballage vs. Jets
FanDuel = $5,800 / DraftKings = $ 5,600
I’m going back to the Bellagio again this week… Last week he put up a respectable 23 touches, and should see a similar workload against a worse defense. PS- Anthony Lynn officially named Ballage the RB1 this week.
Terry McLaurin vs. Bengals
FanDuel = $7,300 / DraftKings = $6,900
McLaurin is on pace for nearly 1,400 yards this season, and is on to his 3rd QB already in 9 games. Lucky for him Alex Smith has looked great in his transition to more of a pocket-QB. Watching Philip Rivers highlights to see how a non-mobile QB plays must have worked out! Scary Terry should feast against the Bengals secondary.
Amari Cooper @ Vikings
FanDuel = $6,900 / DraftKings = $5,400
Cooper’s top (backup) QB is returning this week, and while he’s no Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton is more than capable of getting the ball into the hands of the Cowboys top wideout. Minnesota doesn’t have a great secondary, and they especially struggle against top-notch route runners (just ask Davante Adams).
Jakobi Meyers @ Houston
FanDuel = $6,000 / DraftKings = $ 4,900
The biggest reason I’m open to playing Cam at QB this week is Meyers. He’s averaging over 7 receptions the last 3 weeks, 35 total targets… The team is still without Edelman, and any other WR that’s a legit threat. The opportunity is there, Houston’s secondary isn’t playing well, and the Patriots are designing plays for him. Should be a big week for a low cost.
Keelan Cole @ Jaguars
FanDuel = $5,300 / DraftKings = $ 3,800
Keelan Cole had another solid week vs. the Packers, putting up 5/7 for 47 yards and a touchdown (he also returned a punt for a TD). With Shenault out yet again, and Chark likely to be covered by Joe Haden, Cole could have a solid week at a minimal cost. If you need to save money for Dalvin Cook or another high-price player, Cole can make that possible and will contribute legit points.
T.J. Hockenson @ Panthers
FanDuel = $6,000 / DraftKings = $4,200
Hockenson should be the number 2 this week with Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola out. The Panthers have been middle of the pack against TEs this year, and the Iowa product has the talent to take advantage. Stafford has a thumb injury, but is expected to start and is apparently throwing the ball really well.
Hayden Hurst @ Saints
FanDuel = $5,500 / DraftKings = $4,400
Hurst has at least 7 targets the last 3 weeks, and should continue that this week with the Saints worried about Julio and Ridley on the outside. This should be a high scoring game no matter who plays QB for the Saints. TE is a punt this week and you could do a lot worse than Hurst who is very involved week in and week out in a high volume passing attack.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jaguars
FanDuel = $5,000 / DraftKings = $ 4,600
The Steelers are the one safe defense to play this year. They also have a great matchup against Jake the Snake Luton and the Jags. If you have the money available, it should be wise to spend up for Pittsburgh’s defense.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Browns
FanDuel = $4,000 / DraftKings = $ 2,800
The one sloppy game scheduled during the main slate, and I’m already not sold on the Browns offense. Baker is due to make some mistakes, and if the Eagles can contain their run game they could reward DFS players with a big week.
One last note; every lineup you have should be based on players YOU think are going to have big games. If you’re undecided, use this article to help and feel free to use my burning of the midnight oil-logic in perfecting your lineup. I try to hit some top-tier/expensive players and some bottom barrel/cheap players in every article, though there is going to be variety with that every week.
Josh Frey, DFS/Dynasty
Ride or Dynasty