By Brendan Taffe
We asked members of our staff to pick a player they are fading this year. Here are their responses.
Guy I’m avoiding in every dynasty startup:
- Brendan Taffe @BCTAFFE – Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills: Simply put, the Bills’ offense is better when Josh Allen doesn’t waste plays by throwing the ball 15 yards past his receiver. I’m expecting a few big games a year but the volume won’t be there to warrant a pick at his ADP.
- Ryan Bickerstaff @thedevydirtbag – Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers: This year’s Damien Williams, as in fantasy fools gold. Mostert is part of a complicated committee backfield that will, in all likelihood, ride the hot hand from week to week. I’m avoiding the 28-year-old in all formats this season.
- JJ Wenner @JJWenner – Tyreek Hill, KC Chiefs: I know that he is electric and KC has the best offense in the NFL. I don’t care. Tyreek has two major strikes against him. First, he is a deplorable human being and I do not want to feel the need to cheer for him. Second, he does not have the week to week consistency that I look for in a WR1.
- Duncan Smith @duncafc – Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC Chiefs: he’s talented, Kansas are a high powered offense. That high powered offense is exactly why I’m not drafting him, the cost is too high in a scheme that will share the load among a wide variety of players.
- Jared Clifton @unstuckintime82 – Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: I love Lamar as a player and in redraft I’m sometimes willing to pay the high price to draft him, but in dynasty I just don’t trust the likelihood of him staying anywhere near the high stat level that it takes to justify his ADP for a couple of reasons. Aside from the injury risk of a QB that will see 150+ carries each season, I think the decline of his passing TD’s won’t cover any positive TD regression on his rushing TD’s. NFL teams tend to figure out dynamic new offenses quickly and that will happen to Greg Roman’s too.
- Nick DaSilva @NickDizzle17 – Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints: I love Kamara in redraft, but I am staying away in dynasty. I think his injury concerns and uncertainty after this year in N.O. scares me. Does Brees retire? Is Jameis there next year? Can he stay healthy? Will he get back to the efficiency levels of years past? Too many questions for me for a top 5-6 dynasty pick.
- Blair Pierroz @BlairPierroz – Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets: He is a 28 year old RB who averaged 3.2 ypc last year. He still has Adam Gase as a coach, who by the way, has said he will use Bell even less this year. To summarize: old, inefficient, and losing volume. I’ll pass.
- Don Detwiler – Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns: Cleveland is where highly drafted QBs go to die. The organization is a mess and has a long standing tradition of ruining young QBs by either getting them killed, changing everything around them almost annually so they can never learn a system and grow, or giving them no help. In Bakers case it’s items 1 and 2 that scare me off. The backs and receivers in Cleveland are good enough for him to shine, but the line and revolving door of entire coaching staffs are just too much for me. Leave the shake and baker on the shelf folks.
- Kyle Allen @kallen_4 – Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team: The hype train has officially gotten out of control. Gibson is heralded for his game breaking plays and insane TD rate in college, but I think his microscopic touch rate will continue at the NFL level. The Washington Football Team will most likely have one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league and play from behind often over the next couple of years, meaning Haskins is going to be throwing the ball a lot. He is starting his career in a committee with more talented guys in Adrian Peterson and Bryce Love, and he doesn’t even have a clearly defined position. Historically speaking, these gadget/hybrid players, like Braxton Miller or Demarcus Robinson, have not found fantasy relevance, and I do not expect this to turn out any differently. He is currently being drafted at a dynasty ADP (PPR) of 131, well ahead of guys like Latavius Murray and Joshua Kelly who I would much rather wait for and then have the opportunity to take Parris Campbell or Jonnu Smith near Gibson’s ADP.
- Matthew Walters @M_Walt_10 – Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders: I’m not sure Ruggs will even be the best rookie WR on the Raiders this year. I know he was the first WR off the board in the NFL draft, but can anybody except the Raiders say that he should have been? There is too much love for a WR that only had about 3 catches a game in college and never was the number one WR on his team. How do you justify the draft capital for a guy that never had 750 receiving yards in any of his college years? Too much concern here for me to invest in.
- Josh Frey @freyj3773 – Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons: The upside is real; he is a former overall RB1 with little competition for carries in an offense that will put up plenty of points… However, his knee issues are also real, and with reports of swelling already occurring it’s just not worth the risk. Someone in your draft will buy into the upside and select him with an early pick – let them take the risk. Redraft leagues can’t be won on draft night, but they can certainly be lost…
- Blake Koppen @BlakeKoppenFF – Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions: I see no reason to draft Kerryon until at least 45-50 RBs are off the board. D’Andre Swift largely outskills him in every way. Kerryon will have at best a 60/40 split with Swift to start the year, and he won’t have the lead role by mid-season if he starts with it. After that, he will be nothing more than Swift’s handcuff. His contract ends after 2021, and he most likely won’t be able to find a starting role anywhere once he hits free agency. In his range, you could take players with plenty more upside and players who could actually start on your roster past this year.
Brendan Taffe – Dynasty/Podcast
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