By Duncan Smith
Greetings All, and welcome to part 6 of our startup recap. I’m going to wrap up here with the second half of our draft. I’m going to recap our format and scoring quickly. It is as follows,
12 team, Superflex Dynasty league.
Squads consist of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX (W/R/T), 1 SF (W/R/T/Q), 16 BN, 4 TAXI, and 2 IR
Scoring is standard PPR except for the following: Passing TDs are 6pts, TE 1.75 PPR, 0.25 PPC, and 0.5 per Rushing and Receiving First Down.
Now that we’ve gotten the paperwork out of the way here is how rounds 16 to 20 played out,
I’m going to start our analysis by calling out @ObiWan. By the end of round twenty, his quarterbacks consist of Kirk Cousins, Jordan Love, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Anyone else have a bit of vomit in their mouth?
While Fitzpatrick is a solid fantasy player, he has the distinct possibility of losing his job to Tua, even if Miami “red shirts” Tua this season. I will be stunned if he doesn’t see some fourth-quarter work at the minimum. If you’re a QB not playing four quarters, you’re not maximising your scoring potential.
Kirk Cousins isn’t in much danger of losing his job, but despite press speculation, it’s incredibly unlikely Rodgers is passing the baton to Love this season.
So barring injury there is a real danger @ObiWan doesn’t have two starting quarterbacks by mid-season and no-one wants to rely on damages to fill out their starters.
Again, the format is king. It’s all very well to go 0RB 0WR, zig when the league zags, and so on, but you always need to keep your eye on your league’s scoring format.
In other quarterback news, @NickDizzle17’s Mariota pick is good value here. The Raiders are paying him a fortune to ride the pine in Vegas, which indicates to me that Las Vegas will not tolerate any poor play from Derek Carr.
My Malcolm Perry pick is a bit odd, and in hindsight, I suspect he may still be in free agency if I didn’t grab him, but while Sleeper has him as a QB/WR in their system, he is likely to be used in Miami’s backfield. Given that I missed out on a top RB in my squad, I feel like I need to take some chances at the position, and this is a swing for the fences pick here.
Another lesson I should have paid attention to myself is to forget about ADP once you get through the first few rounds of a startup. I’m incredibly high on Chris Herndon, but his ADP is so low that I felt I could hold off on getting him. While I’m happy with my Peoples-Jones pick, he is likely a developmental player while Herndon is a potential top 5 tight end now.
Another tight end of note here is Cole Kmet at pick 17.04, @NickDizzle17 again finds good value with a rookie tight end that has a potential path to relevance in year one.
This portion of the draft sees a lot of upside/developmental wide receivers taken. The exception here are Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Julian Edelman and bad news guys, I think all three picks stink. However, the Edelman pick has improved with Cam Newton now signed. Overall, I would have instead taken Chase Claypool or Van Jefferson (both taken in the next round) over these guys.
I suspect that all three players are likely to be headaches for their owners, never quite good enough to be regular starters, never poor enough to drop, and with no value to trade.
At running back, I’m pleased with my Deejay Dallas pick, he is firmly on my sleeper list, and if we see a pre-season, I suspect his draft stock will increase before week one. A player I am even higher on is Lynn Bowden Jr taken at 18.12 by @Brendan33 if his presence during a DEA raid was nothing more than bad luck and he doesn’t find himself in hot water by the start of the season he could be a great pick. Bowden Jr is electric, and his receiving ability gives him an excellent chance of meaningful work. The guys ahead of him are Jalen Richard (tellingly taken after him) and Josh Jacobs. I think Bowden Jr should quickly get past Richard on the depth chart, and I also get the feeling that much like with Derek Carr, Gruden won’t feel any regrets in sitting Jacobs should he not live up to expectations.
Rounds 21 to 25 went as follows,
Highlights of this section are late-round wide receivers, Quez Watkins and Quintez Cephus. Jalen Reagor has overshadowed Watkins in this year’s draft, but he is a speedster with a sub 4.4 second 40 yard, he is explosive in a straight line and don’t be surprised to see him on redzone this season taking the ball to the house.
Cephus is a bit more of a project, he is on the small side but well built with it and takes a while to get up to speed, his most significant issue is little hands, and he has dropped the ball in college, something he won’t get away with in the pros.
At quarterback, it is worth noting Mason Rudolph went two spots before Josh Rosen, given how poorly Rudolph played last year, even losing his role to Duck Hodges at one point. It shows just how far Rosen has fallen in two short years.
In this section most teams look to fill out some depth at tight end (see my doubting Thomas article for my reasons on selecting him), I love my Tyler Effiert pick in round 25, he played a full season in 2019 and went in as the Jags top option at the position this year.
Rounding us off are rounds 26 to 30, they went as we see here,
Even this far into the draft, we still see some value and potentially exciting developmental players.
I managed to grab Isaiah Coulter and Juan Jennings with back to back picks, both players have a chance to shine but are likely to spend the year on my taxi squad but this deep in the draft I am delighted to get a couple of taxi stashes.
At quarterback again, we have a lot of backups and projects. Cole McDonald, in the middle of the 26th round, is of great value. He immediately slots into the Titans set up behind Ryan Tannehill, and out of all of the late-round quarterbacks going, he has potentially the most natural path to relevance.
At running back, Lamar Miller could be the biggest steal of the entire draft, picked fourth last overall he has since released tape of him looking good in practice if a running back needy team scoops him up and gets him involved immediately, he could make a big year one impact.
And there we have it, 12 teams, 30 rounds, 360 picks and a 6 part article covering it from start to finish. Overall I think I’ve done ok, my biggest mistake was perhaps taking Josh Allen in the second, mainly when I got Sam Darnold later on anyway but I will survive. While I don’t think I’m bringing home the title this year I believe I have opportunity to be competitive sooner than later, I have a solid corp of wide receivers and starting quarterbacks to build my team around.
Duncan Smith – Dynasty/IDP
Ride or Dynasty